Summer is here now, and with it the recovery. This combination should just do the Germans good after a year and a half in the crown. They are allowed to return to restaurants and stores. You can spend your money there conscientiously because your worries about your own work will evaporate. Unemployment is falling despite the holiday season – something like this was last seen 15 years ago.
Overcoming the corona crisis is no accident. It owes it to a government that has done certain things well despite annoying mistakes. It protected the health of citizens by limiting the number of openings. And he protected the economy through government spending when some demanded savings. This is now being rewarded with a recovery which can only be achieved because mass infections and mass unemployment have previously been avoided. However, a look to the future shows that there are still challenges ahead.
Yes, the economy experienced significant growth from April to June. In the previous lockdown, however, it declined more than previously thought, according to statisticians. As a result, the recovery of the Corona Valley in 2021 will be weaker. The Bundesbank forecasts even stronger growth in the coming months. But this will only be successful if businesses, politicians and citizens master two risks.
The industry suffers from a lack of chips and other parts. Amid strong demand, automakers are sending thousands of people on short-time work. Everything must be done in the short term to limit the damage. In the medium term, the economy should ask itself whether it is at a stalemate due to the imperatives of ever cheaper supplies – and whether the migration of chip production from Europe is a mistake.
Söder is set to dismiss his Minister of Economy Aiwanger
The fourth corona wave could become even more economically dangerous than the delivery problems. To close shops, restaurants and leisure facilities again would be bitter. The question arises whether this is even necessary if, unlike previous corona waves, enough Germans have vaccine protection. This is exactly the problem: there are still too few vaccinated. Anyone who refuses to take spikes in vaccines without medical reasons is not only deliberately harming the health of people with weakened immune systems and children for whom no vaccine has yet been approved. It also harms the economy and therefore everyone’s income.
Behavioral economist Armin Falk accuses vaccine refusals of negative external effects on the general public, such as those generated by tax evaders or climate-damaging production. He calls for a vaccination light – the government is not relying on voluntary action on taxes or climate protection. Falk is right. The compulsory test for holidaymakers is only the first step. Health and the economy must be immune to the simplicity of those who oppose vaccination. If the information and privileges of the vaccinated people are not sufficient, then it is mandatory to vaccinate.
It sounds like a joke that the boss of free voters, Hubert Aiwanger, refuses the vaccine, but at the same time wants to be Bavarian Minister of the Economy. Prime Minister Markus Söder accuses him of having flattered himself on rights which, like the main AfD candidate Alice Weidel, refuse to vaccinate. It’s not sufficient. Söder is expected to dismiss the minister. Businesses and unions are rightly calling for vaccination as it is the best way to protect health and the economy in Wave Four.
The risks for the recovery also show that the state must not withdraw too quickly, as some are asking. He must be available for new business difficulties. Germany has handled the crisis fairly well so far. No one should risk this lightly.