The organization of industrial nations OECD predicts slower growth in the German economy this year due to supply bottlenecks in the industry. Gross domestic product will grow 2.9% in 2021, according to outlook released Tuesday. In May, OECD experts expected an increase of 3.3%. For this, the forecast for 2022 has been increased from 4.4% to 4.6%. Last year, Europe’s largest economy collapsed by nearly five percent due to the corona pandemic.
“The auto industry, which is heavily involved in global trade, and the manufacturing sector as a whole are particularly affected by bottlenecks in global deliveries and logistical difficulties,” said the director of the OECD Center in Berlin, Nicola Brandt, at the origin of the planned cut. “This of course slowed down the recovery of the German economy.” In contrast, demand for German industrial goods remains strong. “We expect a gradual resolution of delivery bottlenecks from the fourth quarter and then a stronger recovery,” Brandt said.
For the global economy, the OECD forecasts growth of 5.7 (previously: 5.8)% this year, and an increase of 4.5 (previously: 4.4)% next year. Global gross domestic product has already surpassed the pre-pandemic level: “But in many countries, especially in emerging markets, there are still output and employment gaps.” This is especially true for countries with low vaccination rates. The OECD therefore advises central banks to continue supporting the recovery with low interest rates – despite rising inflation. The organization expects the inflation rate in the 20 largest economies to average 4.5% by the end of this year. By the end of 2022, however, it is expected to drop to 3.5%. For the US economy, growth forecasts for this year have been lowered from 6.9% to 6.0%, while they have been raised from 3.6% to 3.9% for 2022. The domestic product Chinese crude is set to grow even faster: The forecasts of 8.5% this year and 5.8% next year have been confirmed – despite the crisis surrounding real estate developer Evergrande.