According to the IfW Institute, Europe’s business with Asia is slowing further. Due to closed ports and terminals as well as long waiting times for remaining handling capacities, cargo volume in the Red Sea – the most important maritime trade route between China and Europe – is currently 20% lower. % to normal, according to researchers in Kiel. said Friday. “China’s exports are expected to decline in August, and German and European imports are expected to move sideways.” Trade with the United States remains intact.
“EU-China trade is at a standstill,” tweeted outgoing IfW president Gabriel Felbermayr. Declining import volumes are likely to increase the prices of imported goods. “You could clearly see this in the Christmas business.” In particular, China’s Ningbo and Shanghai mega-ports have left far fewer ships in the past four weeks than in the previous four weeks, according to the IfW. While there have been slight signs of easing recently, the closure of the Ningbo terminal is further aggravating bottlenecks in container traffic. “The maritime trade does not stop,” said IfW expert Vincent Stamer.
According to the researchers, total world trade in August is expected to be at the level of the previous month. For Germany, there are signs of an increase in exports of 1.6%. “Imports from Germany and Northern Europe will be spared the recent bottlenecks in container shipping this month.” Looking ahead, however, “a high level of uncertainty” is to be feared, Stamer warned.